Look at your website’s current traffic patterns, pageviews or visits per day, and compare that to your server infrastructure. In a nutshell your current capacity would measure the ceiling your traffic could grow to, and still be supported by your current servers. Think of it as the horsepower of you application stack – load balancer, caching server, webserver and database.
Capacity planning seeks to estimate when you will reach capacity with your current infrastructure by doing load testing, and stress testing. With traditional servers, you estimate how many months you will be comfortable with currently provisioned servers, and plan to bring new ones online and into rotation before you reach that traffic ceiling.
Your reaction to capacity and seasonal traffic variations becomes much more nimble with cloud computing solutions, as you can script server spinups to match capacity and growth needs. In fact you can implement auto-scaling as well, setting rules and thresholds to bring additional capacity online – or offline – automatically as traffic dictates.
In order to be able to do proper capacity planning, you need good data. Pageviews and visits per day can come from your analytics package, but you’ll also need more complex metrics on what your servers are doing over time. Packages like Cacti, Munin, Ganglia, OpenNMS or Zenoss can provide you with very useful data collection with very little overhead to the server. With these in place, you can view load average, memory & disk usage, database or webserver threads and correlate all that data back to your application. What’s more with time-based data and graphs, you can compare changes to application change management and deployment data, to determine how new code rollouts affect capacity requirements.