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Who the heck is Bayes
Thomas Bayes was a scientist & thinker, Fellow of the Royal Society, and back in 1763 author of “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances”. His method advocated learning by approximation, to get closer and closer to the truth by gathering more information, and factoring that into probabilities & predictions.
What isn’t acceptable under Bayes’s theorem is to pretend that you don’t have any prior beliefs. You should work to reduce your biases, but to say you have none is a sign that you have many.
Why should you care?
From hurricane & earthquake warnings, to financial storms or terrorism, prediction is more important than ever. Epidemiologists can make use of Bayesian techniques to protect populations, gamblers can use it in sport, and investors for markets.
Why Nate Silver is different
Nate is famous for predicting the 2012 presidential election with uncanny accuracy. So the book is an in depth look at how he thinks, and how he works with data. He talks of Hedgehogs – those who believe in big ideas and work from large principals, versus Foxes who see the world as messy, often inconsistent and unpredictable, but who nevertheless tend to present better though less definitive predictions. The philosophy is less of modeling, and more of testing, and adjusting along the way to get closer to the truth.
For engineers & startups
Nate interviewed John Sanders of a scout for the LA Dodgers. He identified five abilities and characteristics that predict success in baseball. Looking at them together, I think they can well predict success in Startup land too.
1. Preparedness & work ethic
2. Concentration & focus
3. Competitiveness & self-confidence
4. Stress management & humility
5. Adaptiveness & learning ability
The book is a bit technical and sometimes long winded. But it is choc full of real insight, and wisdom that we can all put to use in our careers and businesses.