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Bye bye Kubernetes

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James Sanders at TechReplublic interviews Corey Quinn,
Is Kubernetes better for building a resume than a platform?

Corey is the snarky, observant, and talented author behind Last Week in AWS. If you haven’t subscribed you’re definitely missing out!

Join 35,000 others and follow Sean Hull on twitter @hullsean.

The observation about Kubernetes is not new. My friend & colleague over at Smash Company, Lawrence Krubner, wrote an exhaustive piece commenting on the flaws of docker, kubernetes and their eco-system.

It’s October 7th, 2019. I will revisit the question of Kubernetes demise again in six months. First thing in April 2020 we can see where my prediction stands!

1. Senior engineers are asking hard questions

The new generation of engineers, are more open to new solutions. They’re not bogged down by history, and legacy limitations. They’ll try new things, and embrace new technologies if they can solve a problem.

But senior engineers have been bitten. They’ve had the sorry job of untangling over engineered solutions. They’ve seen small firms live and die by wrong choices, and tech stack decisions. They’ve hit the wall on architectures, that were designed without enough perspective and foresight.

Read: What did Matt Ranney discover scaling Uber to 1000 microservices?

2. Trends come come and go

Does anyone out there remember Xen? Probably not. That’s because AWS squashed it like a little ant.

Kubernetes could go the same way. Not least because AWS has their own ECS.

Related: Can humility help you in your career?

3. Complexity is getting out of control

Kubernetes is sure great for doing blue-green deployments. And dockerizing all the things, helps developers and ops teams work together. After all just handing over the container asset, means ops can concentrate on deploying that. And kubernetes is great right up to this point.

But what about when kubernetes itself introduces application problems?

What about when kubernetes introduces performance and scalability problems?

And don’t even get me started about the crazy problems of running a database on Kubernetes.

Read: What happened when I offered advice outside my pay grade?

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The Needle in Big Data Noise

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Also take a look at: I hacked Disqus Digests to discover new blogs

Who the heck is Bayes

Thomas Bayes was a scientist & thinker, Fellow of the Royal Society, and back in 1763 author of “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances”. His method advocated learning by approximation, to get closer and closer to the truth by gathering more information, and factoring that into probabilities & predictions.

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What isn’t acceptable under Bayes’s theorem is to pretend that you don’t have any prior beliefs. You should work to reduce your biases, but to say you have none is a sign that you have many.
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Why should you care?

From hurricane & earthquake warnings, to financial storms or terrorism, prediction is more important than ever. Epidemiologists can make use of Bayesian techniques to protect populations, gamblers can use it in sport, and investors for markets.

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Why Nate Silver is different

Nate is famous for predicting the 2012 presidential election with uncanny accuracy. So the book is an in depth look at how he thinks, and how he works with data. He talks of Hedgehogs – those who believe in big ideas and work from large principals, versus Foxes who see the world as messy, often inconsistent and unpredictable, but who nevertheless tend to present better though less definitive predictions. The philosophy is less of modeling, and more of testing, and adjusting along the way to get closer to the truth.

See also Sales sucks, but a bear market offers hard lessons

For engineers & startups

Nate interviewed John Sanders of a scout for the LA Dodgers. He identified five abilities and characteristics that predict success in baseball. Looking at them together, I think they can well predict success in Startup land too.

1. Preparedness & work ethic
2. Concentration & focus
3. Competitiveness & self-confidence
4. Stress management & humility
5. Adaptiveness & learning ability

The book is a bit technical and sometimes long winded. But it is choc full of real insight, and wisdom that we can all put to use in our careers and businesses.

Also: AirBNB didn’t have to fail – AWS outages be damned!

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